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Campaign Dynamics & Electoral Behavior

2020. The Coup de Grâce to the Sanders Campaign: Michigan, Momentum & Viability. Society, 57(6): 662-668 (with Corwin D. Smidt). Bibtex | Abstract We illuminate the dynamics of primary campaigns by looking at how individuals changed their candidate support, favorability and viability within a crucial state in the 2020 primary. Via a multi-wave survey of likely primary voters in Michigan we show that Biden’s comeback win was due primarily to the change in perception of his viability following South Carolina and Super Tuesday, especially among the more moderate portion of the Democratic electorate. In subsequent county-level analyses we find that the difference between Sanders win in 2016 and loss in 2020 was more a function of changes in the Democratic primary electorate than in his appeal. Our work suggests that gains in viability do not benefit all candidates equally. Moreover, viability can be generated later in the schedule than previously thought and to decisive ends. We consider the implications of our findings for understanding Michigan’s outcome in November.

Keywords: Presidential nomination campaigns, Viability, Favorability, Michigan primary, Biden, Sanders, Momentum

2019. Bad Characters or Just More Polarization? The Rise of Extremely Negative Feelings for Presidential Candidates. Electoral Studies, 61: 1-12 (with Herbert F. Weisberg). Bibtex | Abstract What explains the recent rise in extremely negative feelings towards presidential candidates? Using the American National Election Studies survey data from 1984 to 2016, we show that negative feelings towards presidential candidates have grown steadily in recent elections, with unusually large numbers of zero ratings on candidate thermometers in 2004, 2012, and, especially, 2016. Such evaluations are primarily reserved for candidates of the other party and shown to be strongly related to partisan polarization. Importantly, however, candidate traits have long played and continue to play major roles in candidate evaluations, though their effects vary by year. Indeed, the unprecedented number of the most negative scores in 2016 appears due more to increases in negative perceptions of candidate leadership, competence and empathy than to polarization. Clinton and Trump are just as much to blame for the public’s animosity as the rising tide of polarization.

Keywords: Candidate traits, Polarization, Partisanship, Candidate thermometers, Negative feelings, Zero inflated ordinal probit, Trump, Clinton

2018. Assessing Candidate Preference through Web Browsing History. In KDD ’18: The 24th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining, Aug 19–23, 2018, London, UK. ACM, New York, NY (with Giovanni Comarela, Ramakrishnan Durairajan, Paul Barford and Mark Crovella). Bibtex | Abstract Predicting election outcomes is of considerable interest to candidates, political scientists, and the public at large. We propose the use of Web browsing history as a new indicator of candidate preference among the electorate, one that has potential to overcome a number of the drawbacks of election polls. However, there are a number of challenges that must be overcome to effectively use Web browsing for assessing candidate preference--including the lack of suitable ground truth data and the heterogeneity of user populations in time and space. We address these challenges, and show that the resulting methods can shed considerable light on the dynamics of voters’ candidate preferences in ways that are difficult to achieve using polls.

Keywords: Candidate preference, Browsing behavior, Machine learning, Data mining, Web log analysis, Supervised learning by classification

2017. Who Votes for the Future? Information, Expectations and Endogeneity in Economic Voting. Political Behavior, 39(2): 347-375 (with Dean Lacy). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | Corrected References | AbstractVoters' four primary evaluations of the economy - retrospective national, retrospective pocketbook, prospective national, and prospective pocketbook - vary in the cognitive steps necessary to link economic outcomes to candidates in elections. We hypothesize that the effects of the different economic evaluations on vote choice vary with a voter’s ability to acquire information and anticipate the election outcome. Using data from the 1980 through 2004 US presidential elections, we estimate a model of vote choice that includes all four economic evaluations as well as information and uncertainty moderators. The effects of retrospective evaluations on vote choice do not vary by voter information. Prospective economic evaluations weigh in the decisions of the most informed voters, who rely on prospective national evaluations when they believe the incumbent party will win and on prospective pocketbook evaluations when they are uncertain about the election outcome or believe that the challenger will win. Voters who have accurate expectations about who will win the election show the strongest relationship between their vote choice and sociotropic evaluations of the economy, both retrospective and prospec- tive. Voters whose economic evaluations are most likely to be endogenous to vote choice show a weaker relationship between economic evaluations and their votes than the voters who appear to be more objective in their assessments of the election. Economic voting is broader and more prospective than previously accepted, and concerns about endogeneity in economic evaluations are overstated.

Keywords: Economic voting, Information, Political sophistication, Uncertainty, Attribution, Presidential elections, Endogeneity

2016. Presidential Primaries and Caucuses. Oxford Bibliographies in Political Science, ed. Sandy Maisel, New York: Oxford University Press (with Corwin D. Smidt). Bibtex | Abstract American presidential nominations hold a peculiar place in American politics. Their practical effects on policy are clear because new policy positions and priorities often originate from the nominee who enters the presidency. They also can be immensely important as a mechanism for changing the balance of power within each party or for redefining the dominant representation of the party to the mass public. Despite these consequences, our understanding of presidential nominations remains somewhat clouded and disparate by constant changes to the rules and features of party nomination contests. Nearly every cycle we find candidates, journalists, voters, and scholars readjusting their beliefs in how the process works. Moreover, the different types of rules and contexts specific to nomination contests also make them attractive to study for a variety of scholars whose primary interests are outside understanding the nomination process. Some scholars study presidential nominations for what they can teach us about how American parties operate, whereas others study them because they provide insights into voting behavior when party labels are absent or because they are interested in the differences in effects by party rules. Many of these works remain instructive and are discussed here but still produce uncertainties concerning how their findings integrate within the workings of a complete nomination system or with subsequent changes to the nomination system. Indeed, a common conclusion to the literature reviewed here is that the behavior of party insiders, candidates, and voters within nominations is often motivated and caused by the uncertain nature of the process or is a reaction to unintended consequences of past actions. The party reforms of the 1970s certainly accelerated a change in the nomination process to greater public influence from voters and the news media. But subsequent changes in rules, campaign finance laws, mass communication, and campaign technology have further modified this influence as well. Depending on the stage in the nomination process, party insiders, candidates, donors, the news media, and voters have varying levels of influence. But at each stage there is evidence of the lasting consequences of party reforms, where parties and candidates now have to act in response to, or anticipation of, the primary electorate’s input before the convention.

Keywords: Primaries, Caucuses, Nomination contests, Literature review

2016. Superdelegates or Supertrustees? The Timing and Consistency of Superdelegate Decisions. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 46(3): 640-668 (with Erik D. Heidemann). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractDo superdelegates heed public opinion in deciding whom to support in nomination contests or do they follow their own conscience? We examine both individual and environmental factors peculiar to superdelegate decision-making to ascertain whether and how they integrate populist considerations into their nomination choices. Via a survey of superdelegates in the 2008 presidential nomination contest, we analyze both the timing of a superdelegate’s decision as well as any change in their candidate preference. Superdelegates who prioritize constituent concerns endorse earlier but are no more or less likely to switch their candidate preference during the campaign.

Keywords: Superdelegates, Elite survey, Public opinion, Party nominations, 2008 campaigns, Survival analysis

2014. Following the Money: Super PACs and the 2012 Presidential Nomination. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 44(3): 410-430 (with Corwin D. Smidt). Bibtex | AbstractThe entrance of Super Political Action Committees (Super PACs), outside groups with no caps on fundraising or independent expenditures, prompts a reexamination of the role of money in campaigns and elections. We investigate the influence of Super PAC expenditures in the 2012 Republican nomination contest. A compressed calendar makes nomination campaigns expensive and money crucial, especially for lesser-known candidates, such that outside expenditures likely made a difference. Indeed, we find Super PACs helped to extend Santorum’s long-shot candidacy but also helped Romney by weakening momentum from Gingrich and Santorum wins. Using panel data of candidate dynamics, we also find that candidate and Super PAC expenditures within various key primary states reactively complement each other. However, we do not find dispositive evidence that Super PACs coordinate with campaigns, thereby acting, at least in this context, within the bounds of their legally mandated independence.

Keywords: Super PACs, Seemingly unrelated regression, Campaign fundraising, Campaign expenditures, 2012 nomination contest, Coordination

2014. Deus ex Machina: Candidate Web Presence and the Presidential Nomination Campaign. Political Research Quarterly, 67(1): 108-122 (with Corwin D. Smidt and Costas Panagopoulos). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractUsing data from the 2008 presidential nomination contest, we offer systematic tests of the relationships between traditional campaign factors, the Internet and campaign performance. We find that claims of the Internet’s relevance to modern campaigns are warranted, as it is a unique facet of campaigns and significantly improves candidates’ financial and electoral support. The Internet is especially helpful to candidates in generating small-donor contributions and in maximizing contributions after early primary victories. Overall, these findings suggest that the Internet offers a viable mechanism for long-shot candidates to overcome the resource demands of the current presidential nomination system.

Keywords: Internet, Web presence, Campaign contributions, Polls, Presidential primary, Long-shots, Frontrunners, Campaign dynamics | LSE Blog
🏆  Winner of the 2014 Best PRQ Article Award.

2012. More Bang for the Buck: Campaign Spending and Fundraising Success. American Politics Research, 40(6): 949-975 (with Corwin D. Smidt). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractCan candidates spend their way into financial success? We propose that the 2007 presidential money primary offers unprecedented leverage to evaluate spending’s influence since it allows for sharper controls of confounding factors. Our results demonstrate that greater candidate spending on fundraising- related efforts is associated with significant future financial benefits. We estimate that, prior to the primaries, increases in spending have an equal or larger payoff than increases in a candidate’s viability and find different types of spending are beneficial for frontrunner and long-shot candidates. The results consistently indicate greater early spending works to advantage candidates, suggesting a lack of initial resources is a significant obstacle for candidates who seek to financially benefit from their campaign’s performance.

Keywords: Money primary, Campaign expenditures, Viability, Frontrunners, Long-shots, Campaign fundraising, Campaign dynamics

2012. Still Part of the Conversation: Iowa and New Hampshire’s Say within the Invisible Primary. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 42(3): 597-621 (with Corwin D. Smidt). Bibtex | AbstractWe propose that the extant literature has underestimated the central roles of Iowa and New Hampshire within the invisible primary and, thus, party nominations. Since candidates and the news media focus disproportionately on these states early in the nomination season, impressions of candidate performance within these states have a disproportionate influence on the invisible primary long before their actual outcomes are observed. Using a Bayesian vector autoregression we find that polls within Iowa and New Hampshire have a more consistent influence on candidates’ levels of national news media coverage and national polling than vice versa. We also find that campaign contributions are as responsive to early state polls as they are to national forces or campaign activities. Although these findings do not dispute that candidates need a broad basis of national support to win a party’s nomination, they explain why candidates continue to campaign early and intensely in these first-in-the-nation contests.

Keywords: Invisible primary, Bayesian vector autoregression, Campaign contributions, Polling, Early states, New Hampshire, Iowa, News media

2011. Riding the Waves of Money: Contribution Dynamics in the 2008 Presidential Nomination Campaign. Journal of Political Marketing, 10: 1-23 (with Corwin D. Smidt). Bibtex | AbstractThe 2008 primary was the most nuanced and expensive nomination contest in history. We investigate how this massive battle for contributions played out over 2007 and the first half of 2008 by analyzing the daily dynamics of candidate contributions using the Federal Elections Commission’s collection of individual contributions. Not surprisingly, Giuliani and Clinton were the leaders in contribution momentum during the latter parts of the so-called money primary. This pattern abruptly changed in 2008 as both parties experienced a structural change in contribution flows. While Iowa and New Hampshire placements helped their causes, the South Carolina primary was by far the most rewarding early contest for Obama and McCain. Furthermore, primary victories do not benefit all candidates equally, as Clinton and Huckabee gained far less than their counterparts in response to their early victories.

Keywords: Presidential nomination contests, Momentum, Campaign contributions, Early states, Campaign dynamics, Bayesian state space model, Kalman filter

2007. Changing Horses in Wartime? The 2004 Presidential Election. Political Behavior, 29: 279-304 (with Herbert F. Weisberg). Bibtex | AbstractThe literature makes clear that foreign policy affects voting, but it does not lead to clear expectations as to how a war will affect voting. Will views about the advisability of the war predominate? Or will the indirect effect through the incumbent’s image be more important? Will a war crowd out other potential issues, particularly domestic ones? This paper addresses these questions through a series of focused analyses of NES survey data. We find that an increase in strong Republican partisans clinched the election for President Bush. The Iraq War was not a direct vote gainer for the President, but the larger War on Terrorism burnished his image as a leader, at least long enough to win the election. Likewise, the cultural war allowed President Bush to retain some of the votes that he might otherwise have lost due to the unpopularity of the Iraq War.

Keywords: Presidential election, Foreign policy, Wartime elections, NES, Iraq War, War on Terrorism, Culture war, Voting behavior

Interest Group Coalitions

2024. US Immigration Policy at the Court: Organized Interests & Asymmetric Decisions. Politics, Groups & Identity (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Seulah Choi). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractDo some interest groups fare better on immigration cases before the Supreme Court? We build on interest group power theory and extend the literature by focusing on the heterogeneity of signers to amicus curiae briefs. Specifically, we argue that the presence of organizations that collaborate with multiple communities sends stronger signals to the justices. We use network community detection methods to reveal the coalition behavior of amici that file briefs on immigration cases between 1947 and 2021. We find that immigration cases garner far more amici on the liberal than conservative side, and that amici coalition behavior varies from acting alone, to cliques, to multiple communities. The presence of an amicus that works in multiple communities has a significant and asymmetric effect on judicial decision-making, such that conservative amici move justices to decide in their favor, but there is no comparable effect for liberal groups. Moreover, the effect is conditional on justice ideology, with moderate justices moving to side with conservative amici. In the domain of immigration cases, the accent heard by justices is that of the conservative side.

Keywords:Immigration, Asymmetric decisions, the Supreme Court, Amicus curiae, Social network analysis, Community detection methods, Coalition behavior

2023. The Ideologies of Organized Interests & Amicus Curiae Briefs: Large-Scale, Social Network Imputation of Ideal Points. Political Analysis, 31(3): 396-419 (with Sahar Abi-Hassan, Janet Box-Steffensmeier, Aaron Kaufman, and Brian Libgober). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractInterest group ideology is theoretically and empirically critical in the study of American politics, yet our measurement of this key concept is lacking both in scope and time. By leveraging network science and ideal point estimation we provide a novel measure of ideology for amicus curiae briefs and organized interests with accompanying uncertainty estimates. Our Amicus Curiae Network (ACNet) scores cover more than 12,000 unique groups and more than 11,000 briefs across 95 years, providing the largest and longest measure of organized interest ideologies to date. Substantively, the scores reveal that: interests before the Court are ideologically polarized, despite variance in their coalition strategies; interests that donate to campaigns are more conservative and balanced than those that do not; and amicus curiae briefs were more common from liberal organizations until the 1980s, with ideological representation virtually balanced since then.

Keywords: Interest groups, Ideology, Ideal points, Social networks, Amicus curiae

2019. Cue-Taking in Congress: Interest Group Signals from Dear Colleague Letters. American Journal of Political Science 63(1): 163-180 (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Alison W. Craig). Data | Bibtex | Abstract Why do some pieces of legislation move forward while others languish? We bring new insights to this fundamental question by examining the role of interest groups in Congress, specifically the impact of legislative endorsements from Dear Colleague letters, which provide insight into the information that members use to both influence and make policy decisions. We demonstrate that endorsements from particularly well connected interest groups are a strong cue early in the legislative process, helping to grow the list of bill cosponsors. As bills progress, such groups have less direct weight, while legislation supported by a larger number of organizations and a larger number of cosponsors is more likely to pass. Thus, we illuminate the usage of Dear Colleague letters in Congress, demonstrate how members use interest groups in the legislative process, and shed new light on the impact that the preferences of elite interests have on public policy.

Keywords: Dear Colleague letters, Interest groups, Congress, Cosponsorship, Social networks

2018. Role Analysis Using the Ego-ERGM: A Look at Environmental Interest Group Coalitions. Social Networks, 52:213-227 (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Benjamin Campbell and Zachary Navabi). Bibtex | Abstract Interest groups coordinate to achieve political goals. However, these groups are heterogeneous, and the division of labor within these coalitions varies. We explore the presence of distinct roles in coalitions of environmental interest groups, and analyse which factors predict if an organization takes on a particular role. To model these latent dynamics, we introduce the ego-ERGM. We find that a group’s budget, member size, staff size, and degree centrality are influential in distinguishing between three role assignments. These results provide insight into the roles adopted in carrying out coalition tasks. This approach shows promise for understanding a host of networks. Keywords: Network Analysis, Role Analysis, Lobbying, Environmental Politics, Ego-ERGM, Community Detection, Interest Group Coalitions, Amicus Curiae Briefs.

Keywords: Network analysis, Role analysis, Lobbying, Environmental politics, Ego-ERGM, Community detection, Interest group coalitions, Amicus curiae briefs

2016. Why Amicus Curiae Cosigners Come and Go: A Dynamic Model of Interest Group Networks. Proceedings of the International Workshop on Complex Networks and their Applications V. Studies in Computational Intelligence, 693: 349-360 (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractInterest groups use coalition strategies to exert influence, yet, like other political actors, they also withdraw from partnerships in the pursuit of other policy goals. We explore how interest group coalition strategies have changed over time and which factors determine whether interest groups relationships form and dissolve. Utilizing dynamic networks of a panel of interest groups derived from cosigner status to United States Supreme Court amicus curiae briefs, we illuminate the evolution of the social networks of frequent signers from the 1970s to the present day. A separable temporal exponential random graph model (STERGM) shows that the number of partners is important for formation but not dissolution, while industrial homophily helps both to make and maintain connections. In addition, statistical trends suggest that while networks change, a few players have acted continuously as coordination hubs for the bulk of the decades. However, a number of other key players in particular decades would be missed without a dynamic perspective.

Keywords: Dynamic networks, Separable temporal exponential random graph model (STERGM), Interest groups, Amicus curiae network

2016. Judicial Networks. In Oxford Handbook of Political Networks, ed. Jennifer N. Victor, Mark Lubell and Alex Montgomery, New York: Oxford University Press (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Claire Leavitt). Bibtex| AbstractIn this chapter we present a comprehensive summary of the literatures benefiting from the study of judicial networks. We pay particular attention to networks where exciting scholarly advances are concentrated and those that show great promise in contributing to the literature on judicial behavior and extant decision-making models. Throughout our discussions, we identify the necessary tools and measures to study these networks and describe the varying processes of data collection while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both the classic and most recent literatures. We classify judicial networks into three broad types. First, we explore the literature on citations networks, or networks of judicial opinions linked by references to one another. Citation networks provide crucial insights into the foundations of judicial decision-making by exposing the opinions judges believe to be most significant. Second, we look at the networks created by considering the interactions between judges, law clerks, lawyers and other relevant figures, which we call prestige networks. Such networks have the potential to reveal possible peer effects among judges and the role of social and professional relationships in determining judicial outcomes. Finally, the developing literature on amicus curiae networks, which map connections between signatories of “friend of the court” legal briefs, help identify which extralegal actors enjoy the greatest influence on the courts. More importantly, perhaps, these networks expose the often secretive relationships among organized interests that are potentially relevant across branches of government and in a host of democracies.

Keywords: Courts, Judicial branch, Social networks, Citation networks, Prestige networks, Amicus curiae networks

2015. Comparing Membership Interest Group Networks Across Space and Time, Size, Issue and Industry. Network Science, 3(1): 78-97 (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractWe compare and contrast the network formation of interest groups across industry and issue area. We focus on membership interest groups, which by virtue of representing the interests of voluntary members, face particular organizational and maintenance constraints. To reveal their cooperative behavior we build a network data set based on cosigner status to United States Supreme Court amicus curiae briefs and analyze it with exponential random graph models (ERGMs) and multidimensional scaling. We find that while many of the same factors shape membership networks, religious, labor and political organizations do not share the same struc- ture as each other or as the business, civic and professional groups. Our methodological approach culminates in a clear and compact spatial representation of network similarities and differences.

Keywords: Interest groups, membership organizations, coalition strategies, amicus curiae briefs, exponential random graph models, multidimensional scaling

2014. The Evolution and Formation of Amicus Curiae Networks. Social Networks, 36: 82-96 (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier). Appendix | Correction | Bibtex | AbstractThis paper sheds light on two age-old questions of interest group behavior: how have interest group coalition strategies changed over time and which factors determine whether interest groups work together? Through the creation of a new network measure of interest group coalitions based on cosigner status to United States Supreme Court amicus curiae briefs, we illuminate the central players and overall characteristics of this dynamic network from 1930 to 2009. We present evidence of an increasingly transitive network resembling a host of tightly grouped factions and leadership hub organizations employing mixed coalition strategies. We also model the attribute homophily and structure of the present-day network. We find assortative mixing of interest groups based on industry area, budget, sales and membership.

Keywords: Interest groups, Coalition strategies, Amicus curiae briefs, Social networks, Exponential random graph model

2013. Quality Over Quantity: Amici Influence and Judicial Decision Making. American Political Science Review, 107(3): 1-15 (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Matthew P. Hitt). Data | Bibtex | AbstractInterest groups often make their preferences known on cases before the U.S. Supreme Court via amicus curiae briefs. In evaluating the case and related arguments, we posit that judges take into account more than just the number of supporters for the liberal and conservative positions. Specifically, judges’ decisions may also reflect the relative power of the groups. We use network position to measure interest group power in U.S. Supreme Court cases from 1946 to 2001. We find that the effect of interest group power is minimal in times of heavily advantaged cases. However, when the two sides of a case are approximately equal in the number of briefs, such power is a valuable signal to judges. We also show that justice ideology moderates the effect of liberal interest group power. The results corroborate previous findings on the influence of amicus curiae briefs and add a nuanced understanding of the conditions under which the quality and reputation of interest groups matter, not just the quantity.

Keywords: Interest groups, Supreme Court decisions, Amicus curiae briefs, Social networks, Eigenvector centrality, Ideology

Public Opinion & Institutional Outcomes

2021. Going Public in an Era of Social Media: Tweets, Corrections, and Public Opinion. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 51(1): 151-165 (with Sarah Kreps and Douglas L. Kriner). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | Abstract Presidents invariably use the bully pulpit to push a political agenda, but whether this leads to political success in advancing that agenda has long been the subject of debate. The increased reliance on social media has renewed that debate, particularly in light of new policies that flag or remove objectionable presidential content. This research conducts a survey experiment that evaluates the effect of presidential tweets on support for executive policies, including proposed unilateral action, and studies the effect of social media corrections of those tweets. We find little evidence that social media appeals move public opinion overall, although they do increase support among Republicans. Corrections generally worked as intended among Democrats but backfired among Republicans, cancelling each other out in the aggregate. The findings offer important insights into the efficacy of going public on social media and of corrections to such claims in an era of stark partisan polarization.

Keywords: Executive order, Unilateral action, Public opinion, Social media, Twitter, Going public, Corrections, Polarization

2021. Ask Only What Your Country Can Do for You: Group Interests, Constituency Characteristics and Demands for Representation. American Politics Research, 49(1): 17-29 (with Jennifer Lin and Todd Makse). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractProviding representation entails making choices about prioritizing the needs of diverse groups within one’s constituency. While citizens cannot reasonably expect that representatives will cater to their particular interests or priorities all the time, we know little about citizens’ expectations in this regard. In this paper, we present the results of two survey experiments that probe the relationship between citizens’ group identifications, their perceptions of their constituencies, and their demands regarding representation. We find that citizens are generally egocentric, in that they expect a representative to cater to personally relevant interests even when such interests are not an important part of the representative’s constituency. Moreover, we find that this egocentrism is not mitigated through the provision of information about the district’s diversity or composition, indicating that voter ignorance about the nature of constituencies is not the primary cause of these expectations. Regardless of sophistication, we observe expectations that are unrealistically self-centered.

Keywords:Representation, Egocentricism, Political sophistication, Constituents, Survey experiments

2020. Beyond the Base: Presidents, Partisan Approval, and the Political Economy of Unilateral Action. Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, 1: 79-103 (with Douglas L. Kriner). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | Abstract Most accounts of the unilateral presidency emphasize the institutional barriers that severely limit the ability of Congress and the courts to check executive action. An emerging literature argues that political checks, including public opinion, may serve as an important, but informal constraint. However, the empirical evidence for such a popular check is limited. We argue that presidents have incentives to be particularly responsive to their popular standing beyond their party’s base. Rather a president’s approval ratings among independents and opposition partisans will most influence the likelihood of pushback from would-be opponents in Congress, which can further erode public support for the administration and its policies. Presidents’ anticipatory calculations also vary with the health of the economy. A strong economy allows presidents to increasingly resort to unilateral action in periods of divided government and to be less concerned with their approval ratings. By contrast, a weak economy heightens responsiveness to public opinion and blunts the positive effect of divided government on executive action. We find strong support for our hypotheses using a new database of executive action, broadly defined, that achieved some threshold of media coverage from 1977-2018. Finally, we explore the extent to which President Trump has employed his unilateral power differently than his predecessors. While we find that Trump has issued more major executive actions than most of his predecessors, ceteris paribus, we find little evidence that he is less responsive to public opinion.

Keywords: Executive orders, Unilateral action, Public opinion, Party base, Economy, Presidential approval

2019. Does Public Opinion Constrain Presidential Unilateralism? American Political Science Review, 13(4): 1071-1077 (with Douglas L. Kriner). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | Abstract Whether presidential unilateralism is normatively advantageous or parlous for Amer- ican democracy may depend on the extent to which a check remains on its exercise and abuse. Because the formal institutional constraints on unilateral action are weak, an emerging literature argues that the most important checks on unilateralism may be political, with public opinion playing a pivotal role. However, existing scholarship offers little systematic evidence that public opinion constrains unilateral action. To fill this gap, we use vector autoregression with Granger-causality tests to examine the relationship between presidential approval and executive orders. Contra past specula- tion that presidents increasingly issue executive orders as a last resort when their stock of political capital is low, we find that rising approval ratings significantly increase the frequency of major unilateral action. Low approval ratings, by contrast, limit the exercise of unilateral power.

Keywords: Executive orders, Unilateral action, Public opinion, Vector auto-regression, Granger causality, Presidential approval

2019. Reassessing the Supreme Court: How Decisions and Negativity Bias Affect Legitimacy. Political Research Quarterly, 72(3): 637-652 (with David M. Glick). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | Abstract While the Supreme Court’s legitimacy is generally considered essential to its influence, schol- ars continue to debate whether the Court’s decisions affect individuals’ assessments of it. The last week of the 2013 term provides an unusual opportunity to evaluate these issues because the Court made a conservative decision concerning the Voting Rights Act only one day before it made a liberal one about same-sex marriage. We utilize original panel data of individuals’ views throughout this period, including a wave collected on the day between the two decisions, to investigate the links among decisions and legitimacy. We find that diffuse support for the Court is sensitive to decisions in these two salient cases conditional on individuals’ ideological distance to the Court and their policy support. Moreover, the negative effects of an unfavorable decision are stronger than the positive effects of a favorable one.

Keywords: Supreme Court, Public opinion, Panel data, Voting Rights Act, Gay marriage, Legitimacy

2017. Mobilizing the Public Against the President: Congress and the Political Costs of Unilateral Action. American Journal of Political Science, 61(4):769-785 (with Douglas L. Kriner). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | AbstractPrior scholarship overlooks the capacity of other actors to raise the political costs of unilateral action by turning public opinion against the president. Through a series of five experiments embedded on nationally representative surveys, we demonstrate Congress’ ability to erode support for unilateral actions by raising both constitutional and policy-based objections to the exercise of unilateral power. Congressional challenges to the unilateral president diminish support for executive action across a range of policy areas in both the foreign and domestic realm and are particularly influential when they explicitly argue that presidents are treading on congressional prerogatives. We also find evidence that constitutional challenges are more effective when levied by members of Congress than by other actors. The results resolve a debate in the literature and suggest a mechanism through which Congress might exercise a constraint on the president, even when it is unable to check him legislatively.

Keywords: Congress, Public opinion, Unilateral action, Unilateral power, Executive orders, Survey experiments, Presidency | AJPS Blog

2017. All the President's Senators: Presidential Copartisans and the Allocation of Federal Grants. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 42(2): 269-294 (with Douglas L. Kriner and Andrew Reeves). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractPrevious scholarship argues that House members’ partisan relationship to the president is among the most important determinants of the share of federal dollars they bring home to their constituents. Do presidential politics also shape distributive outcomes in the Senate? Analyzing the allocation of more than $8.5 trillion of federal grants across the states from 1984 to 2008, we show that presidential co-partisan senators are more successful than opposition party members in securing federal dollars for their home states. Moreover, presidents appear to target grants ex post to states that gain presidential co-partisans in recent elections.

Keywords: Federal grants, Senate, Elections, Presidential co-partisans

2017. The Specter of Supreme Court Criticism: Public Opinion and Unilateral Action. Presidential Studies Quarterly, 47(3): 471-494 (with Douglas L. Kriner). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractThe conventional wisdom suggests that the judicial constraint on presidential unilateralism is weak: judicial challenges are rare, and successful ones rarer still. However, we argue that courts have grown increasingly assertive in checking important unilateral policy initiatives in both the foreign and domestic arenas. This judicial reassertion also raises the prospect that courts may exert a more informal constraint on presidential power. Utilizing two experiments embedded on nationally representative surveys, we find evidence that even speculation about a judicial challenge can erode public support for unilateral action. For some issues the effect may be conditional on diffuse support for the Court. Anticipations of these political costs may help explain the relative paucity of major unilateral actions.

Keywords: Supreme Court, Public opinion, Unilateral action, Unilateral power, Executive orders, Survey experiments, Presidency

2017. Costs, Benefits, and the Malleability of Public Support for Fracking. Energy Policy, 105: 407-417 (with Douglas L. Kriner and Jillian Goldfarb ). Appendix | Bibtex | Abstract Public opinion plays an important role in shaping the policy debate over hydraulic fracturing at both the state and national level. However, most Americans report having little to no information about this controversial practice that has transformed the U.S. energy market. Employing an experiment embedded on a nationally representative survey, we examine how citizens respond to arguments concerning the costs and benefits of fracking, and incorporate them into their policy preferences. Arguments emphasizing the economic benefits of fracking bolster support for the technique; however, these gains are completely canceled if paired with a discussion of fracking’s environmental costs. Additionally, we find mixed evidence of partisan motivated reasoning in how this information is processed. Individuals whose partisan attachments and preexisting beliefs about global climate change conflict are particularly responsive to arguments about the benefits and costs of fracking. Our results have important implications for scholars and policymakers concerned with partisan polarization in public opinion toward energy and environmental policy.

Keywords: Fracking, Public opinion, Survey experiment, Partisanship, Climate change, Motivated reasoning

2017. Constitutional Qualms or Politics as Usual? The Factors Shaping Public Support for Unilateral Action. American Journal of Political Science, 61(2): 335-349 (with Douglas L. Kriner). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | AbstractThe formal institutional constraints that Congress and the courts impose on presidential unilateral action are feeble. As a result, recent scholarship suggests that public opinion may be the strongest check against executive overreach. However, little is known about how the public assesses unilateral action. Through a series of five survey experiments embedded on nationally representative surveys, we examine the extent to which Americans evaluate unilateral action based on constitutional, partisan, and policy concerns. We find that Americans do not instinctively reject unilateral action as a threat to our system of checks and balances, but instead evaluate unilateral action in terms of whether it accords or conflicts with their partisan and policy preference priors. Our results suggest that the public constraint on presidential unilateral action is far from automatic. Rather, the strength and scope of this check is a variable product of political contestation in the public sphere.

Keywords: Public opinion, Unilateral action, Unilateral power, Executive orders, Survey experiments, Presidency | LSE Blog

2015. Issue-Specific Opinion Change: The Supreme Court and Health Care Reform. Public Opinion Quarterly, 79(4): 881-905 (with David M. Glick). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractDid the Supreme Court decision in the Affordable Care Act case change public opinion about health care reform? We utilize a multi-wave panel design with observations collected just hours before and after the Court's decision to address macro-level questions concerning the Court's effect on opinion about health care reform generally and the individual mandate specifically. We show that support for health care reform remained constant despite significant positive movement on the mandate. We further exploit features of the panel to analyze this micro-level change and test hypotheses related to cognitive models, individual attributes, and assessments of the Court's legitimacy. Despite some evidence of micro-level variation, our findings ultimately point to a decision that induced a general, persistent, and relatively unconditional uptick in support for the provision the Court deemed constitutional.

Keywords: Supreme Court, Public opinion, Panel data, Health care, Mandate

2015. Political Constraints on Unilateral Executive Action. Case Western Reserve Law Review, 65(4): 897-931 (with Douglas L. Kriner). Bibtex | AbstractPundits, politicians, and scholars alike have decried the dramatic expansion of presidential unilateral power in recent decades. Such brazen assertions, against which Congress and the courts have offered seemingly feckless resistance, have led many to decry the emergence of a new “imperial presidency.” From a political science perspective, however, perhaps the more puzzling question is the relative paucity , not the proliferation of unilateral actions. Why do presidents not act unilaterally to bring an even wider range of policies into closer alignment with their preferences? The dominant paradigm in political science scholarship emphasizes Congress ’s institutional weakness when confronting the unilateral president. It correctly notes that presidents, in all but the rarest of circumstances, can act with impunity, secure in the knowledge that legislative efforts to undo their unilateral initiatives will fail. However, much scholarship overlooks the critical importance of political costs in constraining the unilateral president, and how other institutions—even when they cannot legally compel the president to change course—can affect presidential strategic calculations by raising these costs. We illustrate our argument with a pair of case studies: President Obama’s halting unilateral policy response to the immigration crisis, and his abrupt about-face on unilateral action against the Assad regime in Syria. In these cases, we argue that calculations about the informal political costs of unilateral action affected both the timing and content of presidential policy decisions. When contemplating unilateral action, presidents anticipate more than whether they can defeat legislative efforts to overturn their unilateral initiatives. They also consider the political costs of acting unilaterally and weigh them against the benefits of doing so. Paying greater attention to these political constraints on unilateral action affords a more accurate picture of the place of the unilateral presidency within our separation of powers system in the contemporary era.

Keywords: Executive orders, Unilateral action, Unilateral power, Obama, Immigration, Syria, Political costs

2015. Chief Justice Roberts's Health Care Decision Disrobed: The Microfoundations of the Court's Legitimacy. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2): 403-418 (with David M. Glick). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | AbstractThe 2012 challenge to the Affordable Care Act was an unusual opportunity for people to form or reassess opinions about the Supreme Court. We utilize panel data coupled with as-if random assignment to reports that Chief Justice Roberts' decision was politically motivated to investigate the microfoundations of the Court's legitimacy. Specifically, we test the effects of changes in individuals' ideological congruence with the Court and exposure to the non-legalistic account of the decision. We find that both affect perceptions of the Court's legitimacy. Moreover, we show that these mechanisms interact in important ways and that prior beliefs that the Court is a legalistic institution magnify the effect of updating ones ideological proximity to the Court. While we demonstrate that individuals can and did update their views for multiple reasons, we also highlight constraints which allow for aggregate stability in spite of individual level change.

Keywords: Supreme Court, Legitimacy, Diffuse support, Public opinion, Ideology, Panel data, Health care | AJPS Blog
🏆  Winner of the 2015 Best Article Award by the Law and Courts Section of the American Political Science Association.

2015. Mass Preferences on Shared Representation and the Composition of Legislative Districts. American Politics Research, 43(3): 451-478 (with Todd Makse). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractScholars of redistricting often discuss communities of interest as a guideline for drawing districts, but scholarship offers little guidance on how citizens construe communities and interests in the context of representation. In this paper, we seek to better understand how citizens' perceptions of people and places affect preferences regarding representation. Using an original survey conducted in fifteen Massachusetts communities, we explore whether citizens have meaningful preferences about the communities with whom they share the same representative. To the extent they do, we test whether these preferences are driven by considerations of geography or other factors such as partisanship, race, and socioeconomic status. Our findings not only offer the opportunity to refine the concept of communities of interest to account for voter preferences, but more broadly speak to the literature on the increasingly political nature of residential preferences and their impact on political attitudes, participation, and voting behavior.

Keywords: Communities of interest, Redistricting, Representation, Residential preference, Massachusetts

2013. Comparing Chinese and U.S. Media Coverage of the Global Recession: Linking the Economy, News and Public Expectation. In Media Discourses about Crisis, ed. Valentina Marinescu and Silvia Branea, Bucharest, Romania: Bucharest University Press (with Denis Wu). Bibtex | AbstractThis study examines the relationships among economic news coverage, the state of the economy, and perceptions about the economy in both China and the U.S. surrounding the three- year recession period of 2008-2010. U.S. news coverage about the economy is found to be domestically focused, more negative and responsive to the economic situation; whereas the Chinese coverage appears to be independent of the state of the economy as well as the perceptions of it. Additionally, we found two feedback loops between the media and economic expectations in the U.S., and between Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) and expectations in China. In all, the models suggest vitally different dynamics among the media, the public expectation, and the economy in China and in the U.S. The findings shed light on economic communication and behavioral economics.

Keywords: Media, Political Communication, China, United States, Recession, Vector Auto-regression

Quantitative Methods

2024. Algorithmic Filtering, Out-Group Stereotype & Polarization on Social Media. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS) (with Jean Springsteen and William Yeoh). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractThe introduction of social media websites touted the idea of global communication — exposing users to a worldwide audience and a diverse range of experiences, opinions, and debates. Unfortunately, studies have shown that social networks have instead contributed to growing levels of polarization in society across a wide variety of issues. Social media websites employ algorithmic filtering strategies to drive engagement, which can lead to the formation of filter bub- bles and increased levels of polarization. In this paper, we introduce features of affective polarization — feelings towards one’s in-group and out-group — into an opinion dynamics model. Specifically, we show that incorporating a negative out-group stereotype into the opinion dynamics model (1) affects the level of polarization present among agents in the network; (2) changes the effectiveness of algo- rithmic filtering strategies; and (3) is exacerbated by the presence of extremists in the network. Hence, the inclusion of an affective group mechanism in opinion dynamics modeling provides novel insights into the effects of algorithmic filtering strategies on the extremity of opinions in social networks.

Keywords:Social media, Opinion dynamics, Algorithmic filtering, Polarization

2023. Disentangling Positive & Negative Partisanship in Social Media Interactions Using a Coevolving Latent Space Network with Attractors Model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 186(3): 463-480 (with Xiaojing Zhu, Cantay Caliskan, Konstantinos Spiliopoulos, Dylan Walker and Eric Kolaczyk). Appendix | Bibtex | AbstractWe develop a broadly applicable class of coevolving latent space network with attractors (CLSNA) models, where nodes represent individual social actors assumed to lie in an unknown latent space, edges represent the presence of a specified interaction between actors, and attractors are added in the latent level to capture the notion of attractive and repulsive forces. We apply the CLSNA models to understand the dynamics of partisan polarization on social media, where we expect Republicans and Democrats to increasingly interact with their own party and disengage with the opposing party. Using longitudinal social networks from the social media platforms Twitter and Reddit, we investigate the relative contributions of positive (attractive) and negative (repulsive) forces among political elites and the public, respectively. Our goals are to disentangle the positive and negative forces within and between parties and explore if and how they change over time. Our analysis confirms the existence of partisan polarization in social media interactions among both political elites and the public. Moreover, while positive partisanship is the driving force of interactions across the full periods of study for both the public and Democratic elites, negative partisanship has come to dominate Republican elites' interactions since the run-up to the 2016 presidential election.

Keywords:Longitudinal social networks, Attractors, Partisan polarization, Dynamic networks analysis, Co-evolving network model, Negative partisanship

2020. Recruiting Large Online Samples in the United States and India: Facebook, Mechanical Turk and Qualtrics. Political Science Research and Methods, 8(2): 232-250 (with Taylor Boas and David M. Glick). Data | Bibtex | Abstract This article examines online recruitment via Facebook, Mechanical Turk, and Qualtrics panels in India and the United States. It compares over 7,300 respondents -- 1,000 or more from each source and country -- to nationally representative benchmarks in terms of demographics, political attitudes and knowledge, cooperation, and experimental replication. In the U.S., MTurk offers the cheapest and fastest recruitment, Qualtrics is most demographically and politically representative, and Facebook facilitates targeted sampling. The India samples look much less like the population, though Facebook offers broad geographical coverage. We find online convenience samples often provide valid inferences into how partisanship moderates treatment effects. Yet they are typically unrepresentative on such political variables, which has implications for the external validity of sample average treatment effects.

Keywords: Survey methodology, Online samples, India, United States, Replication, Facebook, Mechanical Turk

2019. Substantive Implications of Unobserved Heterogeneity: Testing the Frailty Approach to Exponential Random Graph Models. Social Networks, 59: 141-153 (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Benjamin Campbell and Jason W. Morgan). Appendix | Data | Bibtex | Abstract Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) are an increasingly common tool for inferential network analysis. However, a potential problem for these models is the as- sumption of correct model specification. Through six substantive applications (Mesa High, Florentine Marriage, Military Alliances, Militarized Interstate Disputes, Re- gional Planning, Brain Complexity), we illustrate how unobserved heterogeneity and confounding leads to degenerate model specifications, inferential errors, and poor model fit. In addition, we present evidence that a better approach exists in the form of the Frailty Exponential Random Graph Model (FERGM), which extends the ERGM to account for unit or group-level heterogeneity in tie formation. In each case, the ERGM is prone to producing inferential errors and forecasting ties with lower accuracy than the FERGM.

Keywords: Inferential network analysis; ERGM; Unobserved heterogeneity; Frailty term; Model fit; Simulated networks; Florentine marriage; Military alliances; Regional planning; Militarized disputes; Brain networks

2018. Modeling Unobserved Heterogeneity in Social Networks with the Frailty Exponential Random Graph Model. Political Analysis, 26(1): 3-19 (with Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Jason W. Morgan). Data | Bibtex | Abstract In the study of social processes, the presence of unobserved heterogeneity is a regular concern. It should be particularly worrisome for the statistical analysis of networks, given the complex dependencies that shape network formation combined with the restrictive assumptions of related models. In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of explicitly accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in exponential random graph models (ERGM) with a Monte Carlo analysis and two applications that have played an important role in the networks literature. Overall, these analyses show that failing to account for unobserved heterogeneity can have a significant impact on inferences about network formation. The proposed frailty extension to the ERGM (FERGM) generally outperforms the ERGM in these cases, and does so by relatively large margins. Moreover, our novel multilevel estimation strategy has the advantage of avoiding the problem of degeneration that plagues the standard MCMC-MLE approach.

Keywords: Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM), Frailty terms, Frailty Exponential Random Graph Model (FERGM), Multiple membership mixed effects model, Monte Carlo experiments, Unobserved heterogeneity
🏆  Winner of the 2018 Political Analysis Editors' Choice Award.

2013. Crowdsourcing Panel Studies and Real-Time Experiments in MTurk. The Political Methodologist, 20(2): 27-33 (with David M. Glick). Bibtex | AbstractWhile researchers conducting quick experiments and pilot studies currently appear to make the most use of Amazon’s Mechanical Turk (MTurk) as a subject recruitment tool, it is capable of supporting more ambitious research designs, many of which would be otherwise infeasible for most researchers. Specifically, researchers with a modest budget can use MTurk to recruit participants for customized and flexible panel studies. Because it is a cloud based environment, it is easy to recontact respondents, which helps limit panel attrition. Moreover, when used in tandem with online survey software, panel waves can be quickly fielded around imminent and recent political events, rather than at constant intervals or other times determined well in advance. Thus, MTurk’s attributes allow researchers to affordably collect individual level data for pre-post comparisons that can be combined with real-time experimental treatments. In this piece we briefly discuss our own experience conducting panel studies in MTurk and provide some basic instructions for researchers looking to do the same. We utilize the design and data from one of our own recent studies to discuss how we took advantage of MTurk and suggest some avenues for future research.

Keywords: MTurk, Cloud computing, Panel data, Real-time experiments, Foreseeable events

2011. Correlation. In “International Encyclopedia of Political Science,” ed. Bertrand Badie, Dirk Berg-Schlosser, and Leonardo Morlino, Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage Publications. Bibtex

2009. Speeding Up R for Windows. The Political Methodologist, 17(1): 4-11 (with Joshua A. Morris). Bibtex | AbstractTo what extent do different Windows PC characteristics increase the modeling efficiency of R? Do some programs or versions of R run better on different PCs? And for which kinds of models do enhanced PCs and clusters diminish processing time? This research note seeks to provide novice to intermediate level R users with a framework for understand- ing the benefits of explicit parallel processing and upgrades in PC hardware for large datasets and computationally burdensome models. We compare the relative benefits of each optimization with simple efficiency tests. In addition, we provide basic R code to make the transition to parallel processing easier for novice users without networked labs or cluster access.

Keywords: Computing, Computational clusters, R, CRAN, Parallel processing, Memory

Books

In progress. The Visible Primary: How Presidential Nominations Remake Candidates, Insiders, and Mass Coalitions (with Corwin D. Smidt).

OHEMP 2024. The Oxford Handbook of Engaged Methodological Pluralism in Political Science (Ed. with Janet Box-Steffensmeier and Valeria Sinclair-Chapman). Bibtex | Description Forthcoming...

TMOTIP 2020. The Myth of the Imperial Presidency: How Public Opinion Checks the Unilateral Executive. University of Chicago Press (with Douglas L. Kriner). Bibtex | Description Throughout the history of the United States, the nation’s presidents have shown a startling power to act independently of Congress and the courts. Using such tools as executive orders and memoranda, presidents have taken the country to war, abolished slavery, authorized widespread electronic surveillance, shielded undocumented immigrants from deportation, and more. As a result, executive authority has at times been accused of verging on the imperial. In this book, Dino P. Christenson and Douglas L. Kriner consider an oft-overlooked question: Given the strength of unilateral executive action and the steep barriers for Congress and the courts to successfully check it, what stops presidents from asserting control even more broadly than they already do? The answer, Christenson and Kriner argue, lies in the reactions of everyday Americans.

With robust empirical data and compelling case studies, the authors reveal the extent to which domestic public opinion limits executive might. Presidents are emboldened to pursue their own agendas when they enjoy high levels of public support, and constrained when they are down in the polls, as unilateral action could jeopardize future initiatives and render presidents even more politically vulnerable. Although they find little evidence that the public instinctively recoils against the use of unilateral action, Congress and the courts can sway the public’s view via their criticism of unilateral policies. Thus, other branches can still check the executive branch through political means. On the whole, as long as presidents are concerned with public opinion, Christenson and Kriner contend that fears of an imperial presidency are overblown. However, a president who responds only to the narrow base and ignores the mass public could pose a unique threat to checks and balances.

Table of Contents
• Chapter 1: An Imperial Presidency?
• Chapter 2: How Americans Think about Unilateral Action
• Chapter 3: Congressional Pushback in the Public Sphere
• Chapter 4: Rethinking the Role of the Courts
• Chapter 5: A Popular Check on Unilateralism
• Chapter 6: Pathways of Political Constraint
• Chapter 7: Democratic Decline?

ASSM 2017. Applied Social Science Methodology: An Introductory Guide. Cambridge University Press (with John Gerring). Bibtex | Description This textbook provides a clear, concise, and comprehensive introduction to methodological issues encountered by the various social science disciplines. It emphasizes applications, with detailed examples, so that readers can put these methods to work in their research. Within a unified framework, John Gerring and Dino Christenson integrate a variety of methods - descriptive and causal, observational and experimental, qualitative and quantitative. The text covers a wide range of topics including research design, data-gathering techniques, statistics, theoretical frameworks, and social science writing. It is designed both for those attempting to make sense of social science, as well as those aiming to conduct original research. The text is accompanied by online practice questions, exercises, examples, and additional resources, including related readings and websites. An essential resource for undergraduate and postgraduate programs in communications, criminal justice, economics, business, finance, management, education, environmental policy, international development, law, political science, public health, public policy, social work, sociology, and urban planning.

• A clear, concise and comprehensive introduction to social science methodology, with an emphasis on application
• Uses a unified framework, integrating a variety of methods including descriptive and causal, observational and experimental, and qualitative and quantitative
• Supplementary online resources include questions, exercises, chapter lecture slides, a hypothetical data set and suggestions for further reading
• Applicable to all social science disciplines including politics, sociology, psychology, anthropology, business, and economics

Table of Contents
Part I, Building Blocks:
1. A unified framework
2. Arguments
3. Concepts and measures
4. Analyses
Part II, Causality:
5. Causal frameworks
6. Causal hypotheses and analyses
7. Experimental designs
8. Large-N observational designs
9. Case study designs
10. Diverse tools of causal inference
Part III, Process and Presentation:
11. Reading and reviewing
12. Brainstorming
13. Data gathering
14. Writing
15. Speaking
16. Ethics
Part IV, Statistics:
17. Data management
18. Univariate statistics
19. Probability distributions
20. Statistical inference
21. Bivariate statistics
22. Regression
23. Causal inference

Projects

Data collection
Amicus Curiae Networks
The Visible Primary
Public Opinion around Foreseeable Events
The Ohio Political Survey (TOPS)

Posters
PolMeth XXV: Learning from the Campaign Environment
PolMeth XXVI: Issues, Media and Momentum in the 2008 Primary